Rates will come down if jobless rates go up, says the RBA. Cue the betting! If you put stock in what the futures market has to say, this will come true in October. Westpac reckons it'll happen twice this year, in August and November. Whatever the timing, Capital Economics reckons an increase is inevitable: "it won't take much for the RBA to raise interest rates."
If you were hoping for clarity on proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains taxes before the election, this'll wind you up. Labor has deleted something like 90 per cent of information on its website on the proposals, citing the need to update their figures. This may have something to do with questions being fired by economists over the past couple weeks around how Labor has calculated impact and savings from the proposals.
Labor is also on the back foot today due to another case of Silly Billy, with the government-in-waiting being forced to clarify their leader's promise yesterdaythat superannuation would not be saddled with more taxes under Labor. The budget reply includes $34 billion in savings found by implementing a range of new superannuation taxes. This'll be handy gaffe for the incumbent to try and take advantage of, but it'll still be a long row to hoe - especially as Labor ramps up efforts to tackle the government on spending cuts that will be required to reach the celebrated future surplus.
As the ABC's Annabel Crabb reminds us today, both parties are talking about taxes and spending that is so far into the future, it might as well be in the next century. It's a handy distraction to be able to focus on future opportunities when the present is a far more ickier proposition. The AFR's John Kehoe calls it today: "During an election, voters must ask if the Coalition's tax cuts are affordable and if Labor can fix its spending fetish."
If you're wondering where investors are putting their money these days if not property, this could give you the answer. Austrac has discovered an 8 per cent increase in Australian money being squirreled away overseas in the past 12 months. Luxembourg, Hong Kong, Singapore and the US are popular destinations.
A couple of pieces to catch up on if you're interested in the motivations of first home buyers and the challenges they face. This piece from Nine looks at the money troubles and financial challenges faced by four young Australians, while this ABC investigation goes into detail on what FHBs need to do to (and avoid) when trying to get a home loan.